In addition to evaluating components under development, JUROJIN also supports the analysis of warranty data for parts already in production. The available input data for such an analysis only refers to failed components and provides no information on the fatigue life of intact components. Forecasting on this basis typically would be too pessimistic. Also, as soon as the first components are no longer covered by the warranty period, defects are no longer fully reported to the manufacturer. In this situation, the forecasts would become too optimistic.
In projects with industrial partners this incompleteness (missing data) has been modelled and a corrected likelihood-function developed. Combined with a usage model of the intact units, JUROJIN now applies Monte-Carlo simulation to calculate statistically complete data as a basis for extrapolation. Reliable failure forecasts for future time points are thus possible even in the early phases of the warranty period.