Streuspanne – Statistics and Its Curiosities

What actually makes us scientists? We mean »real sciences« and not pseudo-sciences like parapsychology. Presumably our scientific methods, which also include empirical studies! Unfortunately, we pat ourselves on the back with this demarcation too early. Because especially the parapsychology manages again and again to hold significant studies under the nose of us »real scientists« – there is everything, from telepathy up to smart-talking rats. In this way, claims which do not fit into our (scientific) world view are supported with data. How can this be? Are these studies perhaps simply faked? Unfortunately, no. Worse, the detailed answer to this, might make us doubt whether empirical science really creates knowledge.

The Corona pandemic seems to be disappearing from our everyday lives and minds, and with it the masks from our faces. It feels like only half of the people still wear a mask in the supermarket. So today we ask ourselves the question: What good are masks that are hardly worn any more?

Today's episode is all about the topic of chance. How is the term »coincidence« defined mathematically and what conclusions arise from this for everyday situations that we interpret as coincidence? What distinguishes the world of quantum mechanics from the macrophysical one in this respect? What role do cats play, and what chances of success would an omniscient demon have in a game of dice? As always, we answer these and a few more questions for you from the perspective of statistics.

Last year, we addressed the topic of corona testing and its reliability in a series of blog posts. We received a question from a reader about this series: How much does the reliability of antigen tests increase if you test yourself more than once? Answers are provided by our blogging statisticians Sascha Feth and Jochen Fiedler.

Today's episode is all about so-called »embarrassing characteristics«. Alcohol problems, doping in sports and the partially still sensitive topic of corona vaccination – our blogging statisticians tell us what role social desirability plays and how science deals with this problem. In addition to methods from science, Dr. Sascha Feth and Dr. Jochen Fiedler also take a closer look at the unreported number of Corona infections and the start of the pandemic in Italy and Germany. As always, Esther Packullat guides the podcast with questions.

In our podcast, we have already talked about how vaccine effectiveness is calculated. We mainly referred to the registration studies. Now millions of people have been vaccinated and we have a lot of new data. Shouldn't we know better now how effective vaccination is?

The probability calculus was invented in the 16th century in the first place only so that noblemen would do better at gambling. What is left of it today? Do statisticians have an advantage in Lotto, roulette and the like and win more often?

Having dealt with apparent contradictions between statistical measures in the last blog post, we now delve deeper into how local incidences are determined. There have been occasional criticisms in the German media that the incidences reported by the RKI are too low in some counties. We want to address the question: How large is this effect and how comparable are incidences in different regions?

Just in time for the end of 2020, we were surprised to learn that a mutation of the Corona virus is circulating in England. It is not said to be more deadly, but more contagious. Directly, neighboring countries have expressed concern that the mutation could also reach them. So let's ask ourselves today: can we tell from the reported infection numbers if something like this has happened?

The blog Streuspanne has been around for over two years now. Time for an interim balance right at the beginning of the year. In this interview, our bloggers Sascha Feth and Jochen Fiedler look back, talk about developments, goals, the motivation behind it, and the statistical future.